The upcoming Canadian election on April 28 is shaping up to be one of the most unusual in the country’s history. For the first time in decades, it will be fought not just over domestic issues like healthcare and housing, but also over how Canada should respond to threats from the United States. These threats are coming directly from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has imposed steep tariffs, hinted at annexing Canada, and suggested using economic force to bend Canadian policy.
At the center of this election is Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office just two weeks ago after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Carney surprised many by immediately calling a snap election, and while the decision might seem rushed, it is already having a major impact. The election is becoming a referendum on Trump’s influence and how Canada should defend its sovereignty. As Carney said when announcing the election, “We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.”
So why did Carney make this bold move? Is Trump’s behavior really pushing Canadian politics to the left? And how would Canada’s response to Trump differ depending on whether the Liberals or Conservatives are in charge?
Why Carney Called a Snap Election
The timing of the election has everything to do with the dramatic shift in public opinion. Just a few months ago, the Liberal Party seemed on the verge of collapse. Trudeau was deeply unpopular, and polls suggested the Conservatives would win by a wide margin. But things changed almost overnight when Trump began talking about using economic power to annex Canada and imposed new tariffs on Canadian goods.
Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, saw an opportunity to reset the political conversation. Instead of allowing the election to be about Trudeau’s legacy or domestic policy failures, he decided to make it about who is best suited to stand up to Trump. Gerald Butts, an informal adviser to Carney, put it plainly: “This election is definitely about one thing: Trump and the damage he’s going to do to the economy.”
Carney wasted no time trying to show leadership on the world stage. In just ten days as prime minister, he traveled to London and Paris to meet with leaders like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. He also visited the Canadian Arctic to unveil a radar defense deal with Australia and began a review of a multibillion-dollar fighter jet contract with Lockheed Martin. These moves are meant to signal that Canada is ready to stand on its own and reduce its reliance on the United States.
Carney also made it clear that he has no intention of meeting with Trump until the U.S. president stops making remarks about turning Canada into a “51st state.” He told reporters, “Canada needed to diversify its trading and security relationships because it was too dependent on the U.S.”
Trump’s Influence on Canadian Politics
Trump’s aggressive actions have shaken Canadian politics to its core. His talk of annexation and his decision to levy tariffs on Canadian exports have created a wave of patriotic backlash. In past elections, the main topics were usually domestic. But this time, the election is also about national identity, economic independence, and foreign policy.
As Marci Surkes, a political strategist and former adviser to Trudeau, explained, “It is impossible to overstate the impact of the president’s actions on Canadian politics, on Canadian psyche, on Canadian business.”
This foreign pressure has caused many Canadians to reconsider their political positions. A strong desire to push back against Trump has led to a rapid rise in support for the Liberal Party, which had been trailing badly just a few months ago. In fact, polling aggregator 338Canada now gives the Liberals a 55 percent chance of winning a majority, something that was seen as impossible earlier this year.
Pollster Philippe J. Fournier summed up the dramatic turnaround by saying, “I have never seen something like this… But could it last for a five-week campaign? Yeah, it could.”
How Carney and Poilievre Offer Different Approaches
The election has become a battle between two very different candidates with contrasting views on how to deal with the Trump challenge. Mark Carney is a 60-year-old former banker and central bank governor who is new to politics. Pierre Poilievre is 45 and has been in Parliament since he was 25. He has built a career by criticizing Liberal policies on housing, immigration, and energy. Poilievre used the slogan “Canada is broken” in the past but has now shifted to “Canada First” in an effort to appeal to patriotic voters.
Poilievre has tried to tie Carney to Trudeau, calling him a “globalist” and accusing him of being part of the corporate elite. He points to Carney’s past role as Trudeau’s economic adviser and criticizes his time at Brookfield Asset Management, which moved its headquarters from Toronto to New York under Carney’s leadership. He has also demanded that Carney disclose more information about his business interests, even though Carney has placed his assets into a blind trust.
In response, Carney has portrayed Poilievre as a Trump sympathizer. He accused him of being “a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump.” Carney is trying to show that Poilievre cannot be trusted to protect Canadian sovereignty or maintain strong global partnerships.
Poilievre, for his part, argues that Carney and the Liberals have made Canada weaker. He said, “The question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term.” He blames the Liberals for high housing costs, economic stagnation, and damaging the country’s immigration system.
Trump has not stayed quiet. He recently told Fox News that Poilievre is “stupidly, no friend of mine” and added, “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal.” Poilievre quickly turned that comment into a campaign talking point, saying, “It’s clear President Trump wants the Liberals in power because they will keep this country weak.”
Polling Shifts and What They Mean
Public opinion in Canada has shifted in remarkable ways. In December 2024, the Liberals were in third place and polling as low as 16 percent. Today, they are leading in most national polls with around 42 percent support. The Conservatives have dropped to 37 percent, and the New Democratic Party has fallen to just 9 percent.
The Angus Reid Institute reports that Carney is now preferred over Poilievre on nearly every major issue. When asked who is better suited to handle the trade war and Trump’s threats of annexation, 41 percent chose Carney and only 29 percent picked Poilievre. Carney also leads on the economy and healthcare.
But support for the Liberals is not set in stone. While two-thirds of Conservative voters say they are firmly committed to their party, only half of Liberal voters feel the same way. This makes the next few weeks of campaigning especially important.
A New Direction or More of the Same?
If the Liberals win, Canada is likely to take a more independent path on the world stage. Carney wants to reduce reliance on the U.S. and build closer ties with Europe and Asia. He is also focused on practical investments in housing, military defense, and advanced technology.
If the Conservatives win, the focus will likely shift toward cutting taxes, reducing government spending, and boosting domestic energy production. Poilievre has promised to get rid of regulations that he says are holding back Canadian industries. His campaign is centered on rebuilding the economy by removing what he calls “Liberal roadblocks.”
Each approach offers a different way of dealing with Trump. Carney sees the solution in standing firm, working with allies, and modernizing Canada’s defenses. Poilievre believes in building up Canada’s economy at home and taking a tougher, more direct stance in negotiations.
A Defining Moment for Canada
This election is not just about who will run the country. It is about what kind of country Canada wants to be in the face of growing pressure from its southern neighbor. Trump’s threats have sparked a new wave of nationalism and pride, but they have also made the stakes much higher.
As political analyst Éric Grenier put it, “This shift would be among the biggest we’ve seen in such a short period of time in Canadian history.” Whether it holds through election day remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the outcome of this vote will shape Canada’s identity and its relationship with the United States for years to come.
NP Editor: This may be the first development unanticipated by the Trump Administration. Will it throw a monkey wrench into Trump’s plans? Canada’s politics just became a bit less predictable.
