As the war with Iran enters its fourth week, Donald Trump is pursuing a strategy that blends overwhelming military pressure with active, if largely hidden, negotiations. While public statements from Tehran deny progress, Trump continues to insist that talks are not only happening, but moving toward a deal.
“They’re begging to make a deal, not me,” Trump said, pushing back against the idea that the United States is chasing negotiations. At the same time, he has made clear that diplomacy is not separate from military action. It is being driven by it.
A Negotiation Built on Pressure
Trump’s approach follows a familiar pattern. First, establish dominance. Then negotiate from a position where the other side has limited options. According to his administration, that first phase is already well underway.
After weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, much of Iran’s military capability has been severely degraded. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the outcome as “pure American success,” noting that Iran’s military has been rapidly neutralized. Vice President JD Vance added that the destruction of Iran’s conventional forces now gives the United States “options.”
Trump himself has gone further, declaring that the war has effectively already been won. “It’s not bad, and it’s going to be over with pretty soon,” he said, projecting confidence that the current trajectory will lead to a resolution.
This pressure is not incidental to the negotiations. It is the foundation of them.
One of the more complex aspects of the situation is that negotiations are not happening in the open. Iran continues to deny direct talks, but multiple U.S. officials have confirmed that communication is taking place through intermediaries.
Pakistan has emerged as a key channel, with reports that Vice President JD Vance is helping lead a negotiating effort routed through Islamabad. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed that a 15 point framework for a deal has already been delivered to Iran through these back channels.
At the same time, figures like Jared Kushner have emphasized that Iran’s public statements should not be taken at face value. “You have to ignore a lot of what they say publicly,” Kushner said, suggesting that what is said behind closed doors tells a different story.
This creates a layered negotiation environment. Publicly, both sides maintain distance. Privately, communication appears to be ongoing.
The 15 Point Framework and Iran’s Response
The United States has presented what Witkoff described as a 15 point “action list” designed to end the war and reshape the regional balance. While the details remain confidential, the existence of the framework confirms that the U.S. is not improvising. It is negotiating from a defined structure.
Iran’s initial response has been rejection. According to reports, Tehran countered with demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, effectively seeking control over one of the most critical energy corridors in the world.
That gap highlights the challenge. The two sides are starting from very different positions. The United States, emboldened by military success, is pushing for sweeping concessions. Iran, despite its losses, is attempting to leverage its remaining strengths, particularly its control over the strait.
Still, Trump has not backed off. Instead, he has doubled down on the idea that pressure will close that gap.
The “Present” and Signs of Movement
One of the most intriguing developments came when Trump revealed that Iran had made what he called a “present” to the United States. According to Trump, Iranian officials allowed a group of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture of good faith.
“They said, ‘To show you the fact that we’re real and solid and we’re there, we’re going to let you have eight boats of oil,’” Trump explained. He later said the number increased to ten tankers.
This move is significant. While limited, it suggests that Iran is willing to take small steps that could ease tensions. Trump interpreted it as a sign that the U.S. is “dealing with the right people.”
At the same time, Iran continues to restrict other shipping and maintain pressure in the strait, showing that it is not yet ready to fully concede.
A Strategy of Deadlines and Leverage
Trump has reinforced the negotiation process with clear deadlines and consequences. He warned that unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the U.S. could begin striking Iranian infrastructure, including power plants.
At one point, he set a five day timeline, then indicated that it could be adjusted depending on whether talks were “going along.” “We have a lot of time,” Trump said, adding that “in Trump time, a day is an eternity.”
This flexibility is part of the strategy. Deadlines create urgency, but they are not rigid. They can be extended if negotiations show progress, or enforced if they stall.
The message to Iran is consistent. There is a path to a deal, but it is not open indefinitely.
Some Still Skeptical
Not everyone is convinced the negotiations are moving smoothly. Some analysts have described Trump’s initial proposal as “maximalist” and unlikely to be accepted in its current form. Others point to the growing U.S. troop presence in the region as evidence that military escalation remains a real possibility.
At the same time, Trump’s own advisers insist that he is negotiating in good faith, even as the military buildup continues. One adviser described the approach bluntly, saying Trump has “a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist.”
A Complex Situation Moving Toward Resolution
There is no question that the situation remains complex. Iran is still capable of disrupting global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open. Regional tensions continue to rise.
At the same time, the direction of the negotiations suggests movement rather than stagnation. Communication channels are active. A framework has been delivered. Small gestures, like the release of tankers, are taking place.
Trump’s confidence reflects his belief that this combination of pressure and negotiation will ultimately produce a result. He has framed the situation not as an open ended conflict, but as a problem that can be solved.
“We’re way ahead of schedule,” he said, pointing to early expectations that the conflict would take four to six weeks to reach its objectives.
Whether that timeline holds remains to be seen. What is clear is that Trump is approaching the negotiations with a defined strategy. Military dominance is being used to shape diplomatic outcomes, and every move, from troop deployments to tanker passage, is part of a broader effort to force a resolution.
NP Editor: It is tough to negotiate with a regime that doesn’t care how many people are killed and doesn’t care how much of its military is destroyed. They say they will fight to the last man, but what they really mean is they will ask other to sacrifice on their behalf.
Regime change is the only possible solution.
