A Window Opens While the World Looks Elsewhere
As the conflict with Iran dominates headlines and military attention, a quieter but significant shift is unfolding inside Gaza. Over the past two and a half weeks, Hamas has taken advantage of reduced pressure to steadily reassert control across the territory.
According to Israeli analyst Michael Milshtein, Hamas is not just regrouping militarily but making a visible return to daily life. “They are really making good use of them to establish their power in the public sphere, not just for military rehabilitation,” he said. “Hamas is here to stay.”
This moment reflects a broader dynamic. With Israel and the United States focused on Iran, Gaza has slipped to what one analyst described as the “back burner.” That pause has created the kind of power vacuum that armed groups historically move quickly to fill.
Rebuilding Control on the Ground
Hamas’s strategy has been both visible and systematic. Reports from Gaza describe police forces back on the streets, directing traffic, patrolling markets, and enforcing order. Governance structures are also being rebuilt.
“Their police are everywhere,” Milshtein said. During Ramadan, Hamas personnel were not only present in mosques and markets but also “starting to build education systems.”
On the ground, residents describe a tightening grip. One activist said Hamas has “regained control of more than 90% of the areas where it is present.” Its security forces are pursuing rivals, monitoring civilians, and reestablishing authority over courts and administrative systems.
At the same time, Hamas is rebuilding its financial base. Traders report aggressive tax collection, with one saying, “Every single day they come to us aggressively… if we don’t pay they’ll throw us and our goods into the street.” Another described taxes starting at tens of thousands of shekels, with threats or force used against those who refuse.
This is not just governance. It is the restoration of a full control system: policing, taxation, judicial authority, and economic oversight.
A Pattern Months in the Making
The recent push is not an isolated development. It is the continuation of a strategy Hamas has pursued since the ceasefire last October.
After suffering heavy losses and seeing much of Gaza destroyed, Hamas shifted from conventional warfare to survival and internal control. Its military units fragmented into guerrilla forces, but its political and security apparatus adapted.
Almost immediately after the ceasefire, Hamas moved against internal rivals. Reports described executions of suspected collaborators and rival clan members, including public killings meant to send a message.
Analysts warned early on that this would happen. Ghaith al-Omari noted that Hamas had a “head start on reestablishing its control,” especially in the absence of an international security force.
“The longer the time passes,” he said, “the harder it becomes to kind of dislodge them.”
That warning now appears to be playing out.
The Iran War Connection
The renewed strength of Hamas is closely tied to the broader regional conflict. As attention shifted to Iran, pressure on Hamas decreased significantly.
“Everything with regard to Gaza has been put on hold,” said Gazan analyst Mkhaimar Abusada. Before the Iran conflict escalated, there had been active discussions about disarmament, governance, and international stabilization forces. Now, that momentum has faded.
Hamas is also watching Iran closely for strategic and psychological reasons. “If Iran is not defeated, if the Iranian regime is not collapsing, that’s going to be some kind of moral support for Hamas,” Abusada said.
In other words, Hamas is drawing confidence from the possibility that its key regional backer remains intact. The longer Iran holds on, the more emboldened Hamas may become.
At the same time, Hamas appears to view proposed international forces not as a threat, but as a potential shield. Milshtein described Hamas’s thinking bluntly: “Don’t even dream about starting to chase us… You need to protect us from Israel as well.”
A Flawed Plan Meets Reality
The current situation highlights a deeper problem with the original postwar approach to Gaza.
The ceasefire and hostage deal created space, but without immediately removing Hamas from power or installing a functioning alternative, that space became a vacuum. Into that vacuum stepped the only organized force still capable of governing: Hamas itself.
The release of prisoners and the pause in fighting may have been necessary to secure hostages, but it also gave Hamas time to regroup.
Critics argue that this outcome was predictable. Without rapid deployment of an international force or a new governing authority, Hamas retained both the motivation and the means to reestablish control.
Even now, key elements of the plan remain stalled. The international stabilization force has not materialized. The technocratic council meant to govern Gaza is still waiting in Egypt. Negotiations over disarmament remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, Hamas is acting decisively.
The Cost to Gaza’s People
For ordinary Gazans, the consequences are severe. The territory remains devastated, with widespread displacement, destroyed infrastructure, and limited access to basic services.
Yet even in this environment, Hamas is reimposing taxes, enforcing compliance, and tightening control over daily life.
One trader captured the dilemma starkly: “Should I pay them, or feed my children?”
Others described a system where payments are made in cash to avoid detection, with a growing database tracking economic activity. This suggests a deliberate effort to rebuild a shadow economy that sustains the organization.
The result is a population caught between external conflict and internal control, with little relief in sight.
What Comes Next
The next phase depends heavily on two unresolved questions: the outcome of the Iran conflict and whether the United States and its partners reengage fully in Gaza.
President Trump has made clear that disarmament remains the central issue, warning that “if they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.” But achieving that goal is proving far more difficult in practice.
Hamas has deep roots, a decentralized structure, and a clear willingness to wait out its opponents. Verifying disarmament, especially in a landscape filled with tunnels and hidden weapons, will be a major challenge.
The broader concern is that Israel and the United States may be forced to start over. That would mean another cycle of military operations to pacify Gaza, followed by yet another attempt to rebuild governance from scratch.
Analysts warn that the battle is no longer just about territory. It is about control over the population itself. And on that front, Hamas is already making significant gains.
NP Editor: This was an action that needed to move fast, unfortunately politics and coalition building are not known for being fast. Trump’s Board of Peace is now in place, but someone will have to disarm Hamas once again. This time they will not have support from Iran, but it will not be easy. And in the meantime, the people of Gaza are being terrorized.
