In a surprising turn, President Donald Trump announced a temporary delay on tariffs targeting Mexican imports under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), pushing the effective date to April 2. The move came after a direct conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, during which the two leaders discussed trade, border security, and efforts to combat drug trafficking.
While the delay provides temporary economic relief for Mexico, uncertainty remains about the administration’s broader trade strategy—particularly regarding Canada, which has yet to secure a similar reprieve. The situation has also raised questions about Mexico’s progress in addressing issues like illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, two major concerns of the Trump administration.
Why Were the Tariffs Imposed?
Trump’s initial decision to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada was part of his administration’s broader economic strategy to pressure foreign governments into complying with U.S. demands. The tariffs were framed as a means of addressing two primary concerns: illegal immigration at the southern border and the influx of fentanyl into the U.S.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made it clear that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were being used as leverage, stating that the administration expected “significant progress in fighting what the Trump administration has called an epidemic of fentanyl crossing the border to the United States.” Trump himself emphasized the connection between trade policy and security concerns, saying, “We are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl.”
The tariffs, set at 25% on all Mexican imports, were originally scheduled to take effect in early March. However, just days after implementation, Trump walked back the decision, granting Mexico a one-month delay. The reason? The Mexican government signaled a willingness to ramp up its efforts in addressing Trump’s key concerns.
What Did Mexico Do to Secure the Delay?
The delay came as a result of discussions between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in late 2024. Trump, in a post on Truth Social, described the conversation as productive and praised Sheinbaum’s leadership, stating, “I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum. Our relationship has been a very good one.”
Sheinbaum, in turn, acknowledged the discussion, saying the two leaders spoke in a “respectful” manner, even if they did not always agree. “It was a very respectful call. That must be highlighted. It has always been done with respect,” she stated.
As part of the negotiations, Mexico pledged to intensify its efforts to control illegal border crossings and increase enforcement against fentanyl smuggling. Sheinbaum also pointed out that nearly all trade between Mexico and the U.S. falls under the USMCA, reinforcing that the two countries have deeply intertwined economies. “Practically all the trade we have with the United States is within the Mexico, United States, Canada Agreement,” she stated.
While Trump’s announcement grants Mexico a temporary reprieve, it is conditional. If Mexico does not demonstrate measurable progress in addressing border security and drug trafficking concerns, tariffs could still take effect on April 2.
How Much Progress Has Been Made Against Mexican Drug Cartels?
The Trump administration has long criticized Mexico’s handling of drug cartels, particularly regarding the smuggling of fentanyl into the U.S. Fentanyl, a highly potent synthetic opioid, has contributed to a severe drug crisis in the United States, and Trump has made cracking down on its trafficking a central part of his foreign policy agenda.
Over the past year, Mexico has stepped up efforts to combat cartels, with increased military operations, drug seizures, and border security measures. However, experts argue that these efforts have had mixed results. While there have been high-profile arrests and drug interdictions, the cartels remain powerful, and fentanyl continues to flow into the U.S. at high levels.
The Trump administration has made it clear that these enforcement actions need to yield more significant results if Mexico wants to maintain favorable trade conditions. As Lutnick put it, the administration expects “significant progress” in combating fentanyl and border security issues in exchange for tariff relief.
What About Canada?
While Mexico secured a temporary tariff delay, Canada remains in a precarious position. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports took effect earlier in the week, leading to an escalating trade war between the two nations. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by imposing retaliatory tariffs on American goods, describing Trump’s move as “a very dumb thing to do.”
Trump has been vocal in his criticism of Trudeau, mocking him in a Truth Social post, saying, “Believe it or not, despite the terrible job he’s done for Canada, I think that Justin Trudeau is using the Tariff problem, which he has largely caused, in order to run again for Prime Minister. So much fun to watch!”
The relationship between the two leaders has been tense for years, and this latest dispute has only deepened the divide. Unlike Mexico, Canada has not yet received a tariff delay, and ongoing negotiations have yet to yield a breakthrough.
Trudeau, for his part, has made it clear that Canada will not back down. “Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight,” he stated. In response to the U.S. tariffs, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S., a move that could impact 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York.
From a political perspective, Trump’s handling of the tariffs appears to be a calculated move. By delaying tariffs for Mexico while keeping them in place for Canada, he is strengthening his stance on immigration—a key issue for his base—while maintaining economic leverage over Canada, with whom he has a more contentious relationship.
With the new deadline set for April 2, the coming weeks will be crucial for Mexico. If Sheinbaum’s administration can demonstrate tangible progress in controlling migration and cracking down on drug cartels, another tariff delay—or even a full exemption—may be possible. However, if the U.S. remains dissatisfied with Mexico’s efforts, the tariffs could be reinstated, further straining economic ties between the two nations.
Meanwhile, Canada’s fate remains uncertain. While Commerce Secretary Lutnick has suggested that Canada could also receive a temporary reprieve, no official announcement has been made. The ongoing tensions between Trump and Trudeau make it unclear whether a resolution will be reached.
For now, Mexico has won a temporary victory. But as history has shown, Trump’s trade policies are anything but predictable. The question remains: will Mexico’s efforts be enough to avoid tariffs in the long run, or is this just a brief pause before another trade battle erupts?
NP Editor: Trump appears to be stringing both Canada and Mexico along, looking for the progress that he wants. This is too big a carrot and too big a stick for him to be ignored. Trudeau has nothing to lose because he will be out shortly, tough to say what will happen there. But perhaps he believes that holding out as long as he can will help Canadians in the long run.
