{"id":6574,"date":"2025-10-03T23:17:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-04T04:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/?p=6574"},"modified":"2025-10-04T10:16:59","modified_gmt":"2025-10-04T15:16:59","slug":"israel-gaza-peace-hamas-says-maybe-the-smart-bet-says-dont-count-on-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/?p=6574","title":{"rendered":"Israel-Gaza Peace? Hamas Says \u201cMaybe.\u201d The Smart Bet Says \u201cDon\u2019t Count On It.\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Trump put on the table<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan that starts with a simple trade. There would be an immediate ceasefire. All Israeli hostages would be released within 72 hours. In return, Israel would free 250 prisoners serving life terms and 1,700 Palestinians detained since Oct. 7, 2023, including women and children. The deal also covers remains. For each Israeli hostage whose body is returned, Israel would release the remains of 15 Palestinians. The first phase would also open Gaza to large-scale aid. Newsweek reported that hospitals, power stations, and basic infrastructure would receive immediate help once a ceasefire begins. The plan outlines a pathway for Palestinian self-determination. It says Hamas would have no role in governing Gaza and calls for a monitored process to put weapons permanently beyond use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Hamas says it might accept<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Hamas publicly said it would accept parts of the plan. A spokesman told Al Jazeera the group is ready to release the remaining hostages and transfer governing authority in Gaza to a technocratic administration. Hamas added that other provisions \u201crequire further consultation.\u201d In its formal statement, Hamas said it agreed to free Israeli hostages \u201caccording to the exchange formula contained in President Trump\u2019s proposal, and as the field conditions for the exchange are met.\u201d It also said it \u201crenews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents,\u201d and that this would be based on Palestinian consensus with Arab and Islamic support. A senior official, Mousa Abu Marzouk, told Al Jazeera that Hamas was willing to give up \u201cany kind of weapons\u201d provided that \u201cthe occupation ends and the Palestinian control themselves.\u201d His condition is clear. He added, \u201cWe do not need the weapons if there is no occupation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where the answers are fuzzy<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Important parts of the plan remain unanswered by Hamas. The statement did not address disarmament, which is central to the plan and a key demand from Israel. It did not say whether Hamas accepts the idea that it will \u201cnot have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form.\u201d The phrase \u201cfield conditions\u201d is vague and gives the group room to delay. Hamas also said that issues about the future of Gaza and Palestinian rights would be decided later \u201cwithin a national framework.\u201d That is not a clear yes. It is a promise to talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Netanyahu is saying and doing<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the opening on hostages but kept Israel\u2019s larger goals in place. He said Israel is preparing to act right away on Phase One \u201cfor the immediate release of all the hostages\u201d and will work \u201cin full cooperation with the President and his team in order to bring the war to an end in accordance with the principles set forth by Israel.\u201d He has also repeated his opposition to a Palestinian state, stating, \u201cIt is not written in the agreement. We said we would strongly oppose a Palestinian state.\u201d Israeli media report that members of his right-wing coalition remain skeptical and want proof of disarmament before any concessions. The Israel Defense Forces said the chief of the general staff ordered the military to advance readiness for the first phase while protecting Israeli forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump\u2019s reaction and the clock he set<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump publicly pushed for speed. He posted a message that read, \u201cStop the bombing now so that the hostages can be freed.\u201d He later said, \u201cBased on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE.\u201d He added, \u201cIsrael must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly.\u201d Trump also set a deadline. He told Hamas to accept by Sunday at 6 p.m. Washington time. Otherwise, he warned that \u201call hell will break out.\u201d In a short video from the Oval Office, he called it \u201ca big day\u201d and said, \u201cWe will see how it all turns out. We have to get the final word down in concrete.\u201d He thanked Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and \u201cso many others\u201d for helping. He also said \u201ceveryone would be treated fairly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How other leaders and groups are responding<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The Hostages Families Forum said Trump\u2019s demand to stop the war immediately was \u201cessential to prevent the serious and irreversible harm to the hostages.\u201d They urged Netanyahu to begin \u201cefficient and swift negotiations.\u201d European leaders spoke with guarded optimism. Britain\u2019s Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Hamas\u2019s response a \u201csignificant step forward\u201d that brought the conflict \u201ccloser to peace than ever before\u201d and said all sides should \u201cimplement the agreement without delay.\u201d France\u2019s President Emmanuel Macron said \u201cthe release of all hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza are within reach\u201d and added that \u201cHamas\u2019 commitment must be followed up without delay.\u201d Regional mediators welcomed the movement. Qatar said it is working with Egypt and the United States to \u201ccomplete discussions on the plan to ensure an end to the war.\u201d Egypt said Hamas\u2019s response showed \u201ckeenness\u201d to stop the bloodshed and protect civilians. A Hamas adviser told the BBC that Trump\u2019s statements are \u201cencouraging,\u201d and said the group is ready to negotiate immediately to achieve a prisoner exchange, end the war, and secure an Israeli withdrawal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What critics and skeptics say about follow-through<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Voices in Washington and Jerusalem are divided. Senator Lindsey Graham warned that the lack of disarmament, the insistence on Palestinian control in Gaza, and tying hostage release to negotiations are not a breakthrough. He said these moves amount to rejecting a take it or leave it offer. Former U.S. ambassador Daniel Kurtzer said Trump chose to highlight what Hamas embraced and shift pressure onto Israel. \u201cEverything else, Trump can ignore,\u201d he said, predicting the president would tell Netanyahu to proceed. A senior Arab diplomat called the response \u201cpositive,\u201d saying Hamas had no choice. A former Western diplomat said, \u201cThis may be the beginning of the end, but there is still more work to do. Hamas has not accepted key elements of the plan nor the timeframe for hostage releases.\u201d That diplomat added, \u201cWe either see hostages coming out this week or the war will restart.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If implemented, the first 72 hours matter most. Hostages would come out. Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released. Remains would be exchanged. Aid would enter immediately. Reuters reported that regional players like Egypt and Qatar support the effort while Iran opposes it. The BBC said Palestinian Authority leaders are wary of a deal that elevates a technocratic body in Gaza, since it may sideline them. Inside Israel, opposition leader Yair Lapid said there is a \u201cgenuine opportunity\u201d to end the war and offered political backing if Netanyahu moves ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The pattern that worries everyone<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Families of hostages speak of \u201cvery cautious hope.\u201d One mother said Hamas\u2019s response is \u201cevasive\u201d and feels like \u201cthey say yes, but add a but.\u201d That is the core concern. Hamas often keeps its choices open. It now says it will release hostages, stop governing, and even talks about giving up weapons, but only if conditions it defines are met. The group did not commit to disarm. It did not ban itself from Gaza\u2019s politics. It did not define the field conditions that trigger the exchange. Each gap is a place to stall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a narrow path to free hostages and pause the fighting. Netanyahu says Israel will move on Phase One. Trump set a deadline and is pressing both sides. Mediators are engaged. Yet the odds of Hamas accepting and keeping the full agreement are low given the record. The plan demands clear steps. Hamas\u2019s answers are not yet clear. Until weapons are verifiably beyond use and a real technocratic transfer begins, this looks like another moment where promises are loud, timelines are short, and history tells us to be skeptical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NP Editor: <\/strong>Everyone has to prepare for Hamas to accept, but they are doing the same thing they always to. They are jerking us around and trying to get more.  This is not an agreement by any means and we predict that Israel will be begin attacks again within the next few days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What Trump put on the table President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan that starts with a simple trade. There would be an immediate ceasefire. All Israeli hostages would be released within 72 hours. In return, Israel would free 250 prisoners serving life terms and 1,700 Palestinians detained since Oct. 7, 2023, including women and children. The deal also covers remains. For each Israeli hostage whose body is returned, Israel would release the remains of 15 Palestinians. The first phase [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east","category-threat-to-america"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Gazaasesf.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6574"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6577,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions\/6577"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}