{"id":4118,"date":"2023-07-03T10:00:35","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T15:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/?p=4118"},"modified":"2023-07-03T10:00:35","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T15:00:35","slug":"feds-favorite-inflation-signal-remains-stuck-as-wage-growth-re-accelerates-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/?p=4118","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains \u2018Stuck\u2019 As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fed\u2019s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains \u2018Stuck\u2019 As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of The Fed\u2019s favorite inflation indicators \u2013 Core\u00a0PCE\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load wp-image-4119\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" src=\"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4119\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6.png 500w, https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-293x165.png 293w, https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-6-390x220.png 390w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Fed\u2019s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains \u2018Stuck\u2019 As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of The Fed\u2019s favorite inflation indicators \u2013 Core&nbsp;<strong>PCE Deflator&nbsp;<\/strong>\u2013 rose 4.6% YoY (slightly cooler than the 4.7% exp but still \u2018stuck\u2019 at very high levels). Headline PCE fell back below 4.00% (3.8%) for the first time since April 2021\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even more focused, is the Fed\u2019s view on&nbsp;<strong>Services inflation ex-Shelter, and the PCE-equivalent shows that is very much stuck at high levels<\/strong>\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/59dcd7542b98a872117ea92198a32201.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/59dcd7542b98a872117ea92198a32201.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal Income and Spending were both expected to rise on a MoM basis and did but while incomes rose more than expected, spending rose less (+0.4% vs +0.3% exp and +0.1% vs +0.2% exp respectively)\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/eafc5e49b398978fca22f10a4c9e2935.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/eafc5e49b398978fca22f10a4c9e2935.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfmCD8D.jpg?itok=g-_61WGL\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>YoY Spending growth slowed while YoY Income growth was flat in May<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/9201c59acf88d70c4e7989da95bf74de.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/9201c59acf88d70c4e7989da95bf74de.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfm1C9D.jpg?itok=tIOKOgCG\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adjusted for inflation, \u2018real\u2019 personal spending was unmchanged in May (up 2.1% YoY)\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/72a2f093e3b9e871459e57703be27f7e.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/72a2f093e3b9e871459e57703be27f7e.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfmAAF0.jpg?itok=v8G5TETD\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More problematically, wage growth is re-accelerating\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Private worker wages rise 5.8% Y\/Y, highest since Oct 2022<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Govt worker wages rise 5.5%, highest since May 2022<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0468a20a97459ba335e793a67c8c7481.png\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0468a20a97459ba335e793a67c8c7481.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/image%20-%202023-06-30T053821.989.png?itok=q8hfgY0r\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putting all that together, we see that the savings rate increased to 4.6% from 4.3%\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%20370%20247'%3E%3C\/svg%3E\" class=\"zeen-lazy-load-base zeen-lazy-load\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/101781ff3fc768467f13d9d5cf41aeda.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/101781ff3fc768467f13d9d5cf41aeda.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfmA53C_2.jpg?itok=eE776nPL\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is the consumer starting to pull back? Stalling spending combined with sticky core PCE \u2013 smells like teen-stagflation to us<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Original Article: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/economics\/feds-favorite-inflation-signal-remains-stuck-as-wage-growth-re-accelerates-in-may\/\">https:\/\/www.nxtmine.com\/economics\/feds-favorite-inflation-signal-remains-stuck-as-wage-growth-re-accelerates-in-may\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed\u2019s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains \u2018Stuck\u2019 As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May One of The Fed\u2019s favorite inflation indicators \u2013 Core\u00a0PCE\u2026 Fed\u2019s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains \u2018Stuck\u2019 As Wage-Growth Re-Accelerates In May One of The Fed\u2019s favorite inflation indicators \u2013 Core&nbsp;PCE Deflator&nbsp;\u2013 rose 4.6% YoY (slightly cooler than the 4.7% exp but still \u2018stuck\u2019 at very high levels). Headline PCE fell back below 4.00% (3.8%) for the first time since April 2021\u2026 Even more focused, is the Fed\u2019s view on&nbsp;Services inflation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4118"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4120,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4118\/revisions\/4120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nakedpolitics.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}