A Dead Heat in the Garden State
For the first time in years, Republicans are within striking distance of taking control of New Jersey’s governor’s mansion. A new Emerson College poll shows the race between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill locked in a statistical tie—Sherrill at 49 percent and Ciattarelli at 48 percent, well within the three-point margin of error. Just months ago, Sherrill held a comfortable double-digit lead. Now, momentum appears to be shifting.
Mikie Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman from New Jersey’s 11th District, built her reputation as a Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor. Her campaign has focused on defending the state’s progressive path, pushing public safety reform, and addressing affordability. She’s aiming to extend Democratic rule after the two-term tenure of Gov. Phil Murphy, whose approval rating has sagged to just 34 percent.
Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and small business owner, is running on economic relief. He’s attacking what he calls “Trenton’s liberal drift,” promising to cut taxes, rein in property costs, and reduce utility rates. Ciattarelli’s near-upset of Murphy in 2021 proved he could rally voters in a state long dominated by Democrats.
A Historic Democratic Stronghold in Play
New Jersey has not elected a governor from the same party for three consecutive terms since 1961. With Murphy term-limited and unpopular, the Democratic grip appears weaker than ever. Polling trends suggest a shift in mood: while Sherrill’s lead was once as high as 20 points this summer, that advantage has vanished. The tightening race mirrors 2021, when Democrats were stunned by Ciattarelli’s strong performance.
The October Emerson poll of 1,000 likely voters underscores how divided the electorate is. Voters under 40 favor Sherrill by a wide margin—58 to 24 percent—while those over 50 prefer Ciattarelli, 52 to 36 percent. A sharp gender split also defines the race: women favor Sherrill by 18 points, men back Ciattarelli by 16. Both candidates are viewed nearly equally by voters, with each holding 47 to 48 percent favorable and unfavorable ratings.
The RealClearPolitics average now shows Sherrill leading by just 3.7 points, down from over nine points at the start of September. In 2021, similar polls underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by roughly five points, suggesting another potential surprise could be coming.
The economy remains the top concern for 52 percent of New Jersey voters, followed by threats to democracy at 14 percent and housing affordability at 11 percent. High property taxes, inflation, and recent utility rate hikes have created discontent across the state. Ciattarelli has leaned heavily on these frustrations, while Sherrill has tried to keep focus on progressive values and social stability.
Trouble for Sherrill
Recent weeks have seen growing criticism of Sherrill’s alignment with the Murphy administration. Her opponents have accused her of being too loyal to the Democratic establishment, at a time when voters are weary of rising costs and political stagnation. Her declining support among Black and Latino voters—both key Democratic bases—has raised alarms within her campaign. In September, she led Ciattarelli by 57 points among Black voters and 21 among Hispanic voters. Those margins have since shrunk to 50 and 15 points, respectively.
For national observers, the New Jersey race is more than a local contest—it’s a barometer for 2026. Democrats face growing vulnerability even in blue states, while Republicans see a chance to prove that economic anxiety and dissatisfaction with progressive governance can flip long-standing Democratic territory.
With early voting already favoring Democrats, turnout on Election Day will determine who wins. If Ciattarelli’s late surge continues, New Jersey could deliver one of the biggest political shocks in recent memory—and give Republicans a foothold they haven’t held in over a decade.
NP Editor: This would be a major victory for Trump and the Republicans, especially since off-year elections usually go against the party that holds the White House. This election is not certain, but the momentum is certainly on the side of Ciatterelli.
