America is grappling with two linked trends: a shrinking future population and a collapse in family formation. If we want more children and stronger families, we should allow family-required communities and explicitly support them. Today, the Fair Housing Act bars communities from preferring households with children. Changing that rule would let the public and private sectors build neighborhoods designed around the needs of parents and kids, while naturally lowering prices by narrowing the buyer pool.
America’s population outlook is slipping
The Congressional Budget Office now projects only 372 million residents in 30 years, down 11 million from last year’s estimate. Growth is slowing to an average of 0.2% over the next three decades. Without immigration, the population begins shrinking in 2033 because fertility is projected at 1.6 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement level. These numbers are not abstractions. They signal fewer workers, higher old-age dependency, and more pressure on Social Security and Medicare.
In the meantime, populations of Africa are growing at 4.3 births per woman, India at 3.2 births per woman and the global Mulsim population is growing at 2.9 births per woman. As our population shrinks, others will move in.
Family formation is collapsing, not just fertility
Research summarized by Brenda Hafera points to a deeper driver than mothers having fewer children. The sharper change is the rise in women who have no children at all, many of whom wanted children but never found a partner in time. Cultural shifts matter. Marriage has moved from cornerstone to capstone, and a “boy crisis” marked by father absence affects education, earnings, and men’s readiness for long-term commitment. Forty percent of children are now born outside marriage, and boys lag in school and health.
Kay Hymowitz’s review of Melissa Kearney’s work shows the lower-middle-class two-parent family has nearly collapsed since 1980, with children in married households falling from 83 percent to 60 percent. The share of never-married single mothers has risen, which correlates with lower child support and less paternal involvement. Even when non-college men saw income gains in the 2000s, marriage did not rebound. Yet children in married-parent homes remain more likely to attend college and achieve upward mobility. Economic support helps, but social architecture also matters.
The price of raising kids is soaring
A middle-income family with two children will spend about $310,605 to raise a child to age 17. Housing is the largest cost, followed by food and childcare. In 2022, childcare ranged from roughly $5,300 for school-age home-based care in small counties to about $17,000 for infant center-based care in large counties. College costs, if parents help, add far more. Families face these bills before they ever save for retirement.
This is difficult. It requires two very stable parents to be a comfortable situation, and outside of a church, or close knit schools, community support has become more difficult to find.
The price of an unstable situation for children is become more and more evident, socialization problems, a rise in aberrant behavior and an inability to form the next generation of families.
Young buyers are locked out of homeownership
First-time buyers now average age 38. Mortgage rates hover around 7 percent, monthly payments have hit record highs near $2,800, and about 70 percent of households cannot afford a $400,000 home. Median sale prices hover around $420,000, bidding wars remain common, and six-figure incomes are increasingly necessary to buy. State-level debates highlight the supply side. YIMBY coalitions push to loosen zoning, streamline approvals, and allow more starter homes, townhomes, and ADUs. Opponents worry about local control and standards, which slows reform while prices keep climbing.
Why family-required communities would help
A legal pathway for family-required communities would allow builders, nonprofits, and local governments to create neighborhoods optimized for children at lower prices.
- Smaller buyer pool, lower land bids. Limiting sales to families with children reduces demand. With fewer eligible bidders, land acquisition costs and final prices can drop, giving parents a foothold in real estate.
- Child-centric design. Streets can be slower by default, with wider sidewalks, shared green spaces, pocket parks, community rooms for childcare co-ops, and safe school walking routes. Zoning can pre-permit small back-lot play areas, daycare pods, and after-school spaces.
- Targeted subsidies that actually lower costs specifically for families. Housing vouchers, down-payment assistance, and property-tax abatements can be concentrated where they benefit children most, rather than dissipating in general markets that are bid up by everyone.
- Starter-home focus. Plans can favor smaller single-family homes, duplexes, and townhomes to reduce construction cost per unit. When combined with streamlined approvals, fee transparency, and right-sized codes, entry prices fall.
- Social capital for families. Concentrating families creates carpool networks, shared childcare, and stronger parent-school ties, all of which reduce time and money stress.
What Congress should change
Congress should amend the Fair Housing Act to create a narrowly tailored exception permitting family-required communities that meet strict equity and transparency standards. The amendment should authorize:
- Child-status preference for occupancy and resale.
- Use of public subsidies and tax incentives tied to affordability and child-focused design
- Streamlined approvals for starter-home typologies and shared child amenities
- Should pave the way to subsidize real estate developers to build such communities, provided the auction based strategy is in play.
- Data reporting on prices, demographics, and child well-being outcomes
Why an auction based strategy? Let’s straighten out the market. The real estate market has many devices designed to obscure ownership, take advantage of buyers, find loopholes and generally scrape more money off the table. A limited time auction may be the only way to guarantee that a subsidized family community is fairly priced. It would determine the best price at the moment according to the true local market.
Naturally, social media would spring up to let people know what houses are available in which communities so that bidding is robust. What would not be allowed would be institutions stepping in to buy and resell these houses, and this could perhaps even bypass the ever-increasing commissions demanded by real estate brokers. This is a broken system, no need to break it further.
Why this is the right lever now
Population projections show long-term stagnation. Family formation is faltering, especially outside the college-educated elite. The cost of raising children keeps rising, while homeownership drifts later into life. We can keep nudging at the margins, or we can build neighborhoods that put children first. Legalizing family-required communities would reduce prices through a smaller buyer pool, concentrate scarce subsidies where they do the most good, and give young parents a fair shot at owning a home built for their needs.
Current efforts have been trivial – small tax benefits, incentives in the birthing process, and others that are meaningful for a moment but not sufficient to change someone’s mind about their ability to support children. But enhancing life style and savings by providing access to dedicated family communities would make a difference. A huge one.
If we want more children and stronger families, our housing rules and strategies must finally say so.
