The fight over redistricting has turned into a political showdown between Texas and California, with both states reshaping their congressional maps to favor their own parties. Texas Republicans have already secured their advantage, while California Democrats are turning to voters in November to try and balance the scales. The outcome could determine control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms.
Texas Republicans Claim Victory
Governor Greg Abbott signed Texas’ new congressional map into law, locking in what Republicans believe will be five new GOP-leaning districts. Abbott called the measure a triumph, posting online that “Today, I signed the One Big Beautiful Map into law. This map ensures fairer representation in Congress. Texas will be more RED in Congress.”
Republicans openly stated that the map was designed to improve their chances in Washington. Rep. Todd Hunter, who wrote the bill, said the purpose of the new map was “straightforward, [to] improve Republican political performance.” Hunter emphasized that four of the five new districts were majority-minority Hispanic, but the voting patterns suggested Republicans would prevail.
Sen. Phil King, who carried the map in the Senate, was confident about the result but acknowledged the unpredictability of elections. “House Bill 4, I believe, should elect more Republicans to the U.S. Congress, but I’m here to tell you, there are no guarantees,” he explained.
The redistricting push followed weeks of chaos in the state legislature. Dozens of Democratic lawmakers fled Texas to break quorum, preventing Republicans from moving forward. Their absence sparked national attention and fundraising support from Democratic donors, but ultimately, the strategy collapsed once Democrats in California announced they would respond with their own map.
Democrats Call the Texas Map Illegal
Texas Democrats blasted the plan as racially discriminatory and promised to take the fight to court. Party Chair Kendall Scudder argued that Republicans had “effectively surrendered Texas to Washington, D.C.” He added, “This isn’t over — we’ll see these clowns in court. We aren’t done fighting against these racially discriminatory maps, and fully expect the letter of the law to prevail over these sycophantic Republican politicians who think the rules don’t apply to them.”
Rep. Chris Turner echoed the frustration, saying, “Members, it breaks my heart to see how this illegal and rigged mid-decade redistricting scheme is dividing our state and our country. This is Texas, it’s not Washington D.C. The impulses of outside politicians and their billionaire backers shouldn’t dictate what we do in this chamber, in this House.”
Republicans dismissed these objections. State GOP Rep. Mitch Little defended the changes on national television, saying, “We have three Hispanic-predominated districts in South Texas that we believe we can carve out for Republican leadership. It’s good for our party. It’s good for our state. And we need to ensure that Donald Trump’s agenda continues to be enacted.”
California Plans Its Counterattack
On the other side of the country, California Democrats are trying to neutralize Texas’ move. Governor Gavin Newsom announced Proposition 50, a ballot measure that would redraw congressional districts to add five new Democratic-leaning seats. “The People of California will be able to cast their vote for a Congressional map. Direct democracy that gives us a fighting chance to STOP Donald Trump’s election rigging,” Newsom declared.
Newsom adviser Jim DeBoo explained the strategy, noting that their campaign would rely on voter anger at Trump. “It’s not a persuasion campaign, it’s a turnout campaign,” he said. DeBoo argued that the measure “gives people the opportunity to be for something that could effectively stop what they hate the most.”
Still, the California plan is not guaranteed. Unlike Texas, where Republicans control the legislature outright, the Democratic proposal must win voter approval in November. The measure faces opposition from a “No on 50” coalition that includes prominent Republicans like former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, as well as reform advocates who argue against discarding independent redistricting.
Latino Voters at the Center of the Fight
Both states are counting on Latino voters to secure their plans. In Texas, Republicans have drawn new districts in South Texas and Houston where Latinos form the majority but leaned toward Trump in 2024. However, Democrats argue these are “Potemkin majority-Latino districts” meant to dilute Latino power.
Polling suggests that Latino support for Trump has slipped since 2024, raising doubts about whether Republicans will achieve the results they expect. A Reuters/Ipsos survey showed his support among Latinos falling from 36 percent in February to 31 percent by August, while a Pew Research Center poll placed approval at just 27 percent.
In California, Democrats hope Latino voters will help them gain ground in districts like Sacramento, Central California, Orange County, and southeast Los Angeles. Senator Alex Padilla has already rallied support for the plan, urging Latino voters to back Newsom’s push. But a UC Berkeley poll revealed that only 43 percent of Latinos currently support the redistricting measure, while nearly a third remain undecided, making them the most skeptical group in the state.
Competing Narratives From Both Sides
Democrats argue that the Texas plan is an illegal power grab and a violation of voting rights, while framing California’s ballot measure as a democratic safeguard against Trump. Republicans counter that Texas’ new map reflects political reality and prevents Democrats from undermining Trump’s legislative achievements. They dismiss California’s strategy as partisan gamesmanship and accuse Democrats of hypocrisy for discarding an independent process they once championed.
The redistricting battle has created an unusual symmetry. Texas Republicans expect to gain five new GOP seats. California Democrats are attempting to win five new Democratic ones. Both sides have staked their strategies on the assumption that Latino voters will deliver, but history shows this group does not vote as a monolith and often resists being taken for granted.
If Latinos defy expectations in either state, the carefully constructed plans of Republicans and Democrats alike could unravel. With the 2026 midterms approaching, the fight over maps in Texas and California may be remembered as one of the defining struggles over who controls Congress.
