Iran has significantly expanded its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to a new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The confidential UN document, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, confirms that Tehran now possesses enough fissile material to build six nuclear weapons. This marks a dramatic increase in Iran’s nuclear capabilities, raising serious concerns among international observers and policymakers. The IAEA warned, “The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern.”
The report states that as of February 8, Iran has amassed approximately 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, a nearly weapons-grade level. This is a 50% increase from late October when Iran’s stockpile stood at 182 kilograms. Experts warn that it would take only days to further refine this material to the 90% purity required for a nuclear bomb. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi recently emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “The amount is there. One thing is true: They have amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons, not one at this point.”
Why Is Iran’s Uranium Stockpile Increasing?
Iran’s nuclear program has been expanding rapidly, especially since it started producing 60% enriched uranium in 2021. The latest surge in production followed a censure resolution from Europe and the United States at the IAEA. Tehran’s decision to ramp up enrichment appears to be a response to mounting international pressure and sanctions. The head of Iran’s atomic agency, Mohammad Eslami, insisted that Iran was fully cooperating with IAEA inspectors and criticized what he described as undue pressure from the agency.
Since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran has steadily moved closer to nuclear weapons capability. While Tehran insists that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, its accumulation of highly enriched uranium suggests otherwise. In a December U.S. intelligence report, analysts warned that “Tehran has, however, undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses.”
The IAEA defines 25 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium as the threshold amount needed for a nuclear weapon. While estimates vary, analysts believe Iran could convert its stockpile into weapons-grade material in as little as a month. Some experts argue that Iran’s nuclear advances serve a dual purpose—both as a deterrent against foreign intervention and as leverage for potential negotiations.
The U.S. Response and Its Options
The Biden administration has remained relatively silent on the latest IAEA report, but U.S. officials have previously stated that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons remains a top priority. Intelligence reports indicate that while Iran has not made a formal decision to build a bomb, its continued research and stockpiling of enriched uranium put it in a position to do so quickly.
Former President Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to applying “maximum pressure” on Iran. His administration had previously imposed harsh economic sanctions aimed at crippling Tehran’s oil exports and financing of regional militant groups. The Treasury Department recently announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil shipments and ballistic missile programs. Trump has warned, “Iran is too close to having nuclear weapons. There’s two ways to stop them— with bombs or a written piece of paper. I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.”
Meanwhile, European nations are considering reimposing all international sanctions on Iran that were lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement. If these sanctions return, Tehran has threatened to withdraw from the international treaty banning countries from developing nuclear weapons, following the precedent set by North Korea. “If that happens,” a European diplomat stated, “it will be a grave step that pushes Iran even closer to nuclear capability.”
Could Military Action Be on the Table?
The growing stockpile of enriched uranium has also intensified speculation about a possible Israeli military strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly stated that time is running out to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Reports indicate that Israel is considering preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially with U.S. support.
A U.S. military intelligence report outlined two potential strike options, both of which would likely require American assistance in the form of aerial refueling, intelligence, and surveillance. If such an attack were to occur, it could set back Iran’s nuclear program by weeks or months but would also risk igniting a wider regional conflict. Netanyahu has stated, “Over the last 16 months, Israel has dealt a mighty blow to Iran’s terror axis… I have no doubt that we can and will finish the job.”
The Future of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has publicly warned against negotiations with the U.S., but some Iranian officials have privately signaled an interest in diplomatic talks. Despite these mixed messages, the window for a diplomatic resolution appears to be closing. Khamenei declared earlier this month, “Talks with the United States are neither smart, wise, nor honorable.”
With Tehran closer than ever to having nuclear weapons and tensions rising in the Middle East, the coming months will be critical. The U.S. and its allies must decide whether to pursue renewed diplomacy, ramp up economic pressure, or prepare for military action. “This confluence of pressure creates a window of opportunity to push for a nuclear and regional deal,” said Michael Singh, former senior director for the Middle East at the U.S. National Security Council. “But that window won’t last forever—Iran is closer than ever to nuclear weapons.”
