Germany’s latest election results have delivered a clear verdict: a shift to the right, but not a radical one. Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, emerged victorious, but their path to governing will be anything but straightforward. While the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best result yet, mainstream German politics has so far refused to embrace them. Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a historic collapse, leaving the political landscape fragmented and coalition talks uncertain.
The Winners: CDU/CSU Take Control
Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU secured 28.5% of the vote, a significant improvement from their 2021 performance. Merz, a businessman and longtime conservative politician, has promised to revitalize Germany’s struggling economy, crack down on illegal immigration, and reassert Germany’s leadership in Europe.
“The world out there is not waiting for us. And it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations,” Merz told supporters in Berlin. “We must quickly regain our ability to act so that we can do what’s needed at home, regain our voice in Europe, and ensure that the world sees Germany as reliable again.”
Despite his strong victory, Merz faces a political puzzle. His party lacks an outright majority and must negotiate a coalition, likely with the SPD or the Greens. However, both potential partners have policy differences that could slow down governance. Merz’s election comes at a time when Europe is facing pressure to respond to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and his administration’s controversial stance on Ukraine. “My top priority, for me, will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can gradually achieve real independence from the U.S.A.,” Merz said in a televised round-table discussion after the election results were announced.
The AfD’s Surge and the Firewall Against Them
The far-right AfD captured a record 20.7% of the vote, nearly doubling their 2021 results. They capitalized on growing public concerns about immigration, crime, and economic stagnation.
“Our hand is extended to implement the will of the people,” said AfD co-leader Alice Weidel. “The CDU just needs to take it. Otherwise, a change in policy in Germany won’t be possible.”
But Merz has repeatedly rejected any coalition with the AfD, dismissing their calls to leave the European Union and ease relations with Russia. “This so-called Alternative for Germany is not interested in real solutions—his party only exists because there are unresolved issues in Germany,” Merz stated. “I’m not letting an American vice president tell me with whom I should be talking to in Germany,” he said, referring to U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s suggestion that Germany should integrate the AfD into its government.
The AfD’s success can be attributed to voter frustrations over issues such as crime, economic instability, and migration policies. Pollsters noted that violent crimes committed by refugees and asylum seekers in recent months played a role in shifting public sentiment. However, despite its growing voter base, the AfD remains a political pariah, with all major parties refusing to work with them.
The Losers: SPD’s Historic Collapse
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD suffered its worst election result in decades, plummeting to 16.5%. The Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) also struggled, with the FDP potentially failing to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
Scholz conceded defeat, calling the results “bitter” but vowing that his party would remain a strong voice in opposition. “This is a bitter election result for the Social Democratic Party; it is also an electoral defeat,” Scholz admitted. The SPD’s struggles stemmed from economic stagnation, dissatisfaction with immigration policies, and internal disputes that led to the collapse of its three-way coalition government last November.
Meanwhile, Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, signaled that he may step down if his party fails to make it into parliament. “Whatever happens, the flag of the FDP will fly again tomorrow,” Lindner said, later adding, “If the party is out, then my leadership is over.”
JD Vance’s Comments and the Fallout
The election took on international significance when U.S. Vice President JD Vance openly endorsed the AfD and hinted that America could reconsider its military presence in Germany if the country did not change its speech laws. His comments triggered backlash from German leaders across the political spectrum.
Merz rebuked Vance, stating, “We are so massively under pressure, my absolute priority is unity in Europe.” Even Scholz, despite his poor electoral showing, criticized the remarks as unwarranted interference in German democracy. The comments also deepened concerns about the future of NATO and the transatlantic alliance under the Trump administration.
Additionally, Elon Musk, a vocal supporter of Trump, publicly encouraged German voters to back the AfD, further fueling speculation about foreign influence in the election. Despite these interventions, German voters largely rejected the idea of mainstream parties working with the AfD, reinforcing the so-called “firewall” against far-right collaboration.
What’s Next for Germany?
The CDU/CSU’s victory marks a conservative turn for Germany, but not an embrace of the far-right. Merz’s rejection of the AfD signals that, despite frustrations with immigration and economic policies, mainstream German politics still upholds democratic values and European integration.
Coalition talks will now begin in earnest. A CDU-SPD coalition would provide stability but could be fraught with ideological clashes. A CDU-Green alliance would be another option, though challenging given Merz’s pro-business stance and the Greens’ environmental priorities. A multi-party coalition could emerge, but that risks instability similar to the one that collapsed under Scholz.
Germany’s next government must address economic stagnation, energy challenges, and security concerns in an era of global uncertainty. With Europe increasingly wary of American foreign policy shifts, Merz has suggested strengthening Europe’s own security capabilities, including exploring nuclear deterrent options with France and the UK.
A Shift, But Not a Revolution
Germany’s election results reflect a clear conservative shift but also a rejection of radicalism. The AfD’s rise shows that frustrations with the status quo are real, but the firewall against them remains intact. The CDU’s return to power under Merz suggests a desire for stronger leadership, economic revival, and pragmatic governance.
The coming weeks will determine whether Merz can translate his victory into a functional government. For now, Germany stands at a crossroads: conservative, but not too conservative, and still searching for a path forward in an increasingly uncertain world.
