In a bold move to address the growing financial challenges of raising a family, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has proposed increasing the Child Tax Credit (CTC) from its current maximum of $2,000 to $5,000 per child. This ambitious 150% increase seeks to provide tangible relief to working-class families, a group Hawley describes as the backbone of America.
Hawley’s proposal, which includes extending the credit to cover payroll taxes, would ensure that families who do not owe income taxes still receive meaningful financial support. This change, if enacted, could significantly increase refunds for low-income families who are often left behind in traditional tax relief measures. According to Axios, the plan has gained backing from President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, signaling potential momentum within the Republican party.
The cost of the proposal is projected at $2 trillion to $3 trillion over the next decade. While its passage faces hurdles in a divided Congress, Hawley’s initiative highlights the urgent need to rethink how policymakers support families amid mounting economic pressures.
The Rising Cost of Raising Children
The push for a higher tax credit comes at a time when the financial burden of raising a child has reached unprecedented levels. According to the USDA, a middle-income family can expect to spend approximately $310,605 per child from birth to age 18 when adjusted for inflation. This figure includes housing, food, education, and child care—expenses that continue to rise, particularly in urban areas.
For families living paycheck to paycheck, these costs can be overwhelming. A significant portion of the budget goes toward housing, with urban families spending 27% more per child compared to rural families. Child care, another major factor, adds immense strain, as many families pay the equivalent of a second mortgage just to keep their children in care while they work.
Yet, not all families experience these expenses equally. Stay-at-home parents or families living in rural areas often find ways to cut costs by reducing child care needs, sharing bedrooms, or opting for simpler lifestyles. Still, for many families, the cost of raising a child often forces them to delay or forgo having more children altogether.
A Decline in Birth Rates and Population Challenges
Hawley’s proposal also addresses a deeper concern: America’s declining birth rate and its impact on the future of the country. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population is projected to peak at 370 million in 2080 before beginning a gradual decline. By 2100, the total population could drop to 366 million, with natural decreases—more deaths than births—becoming the norm.
This shift is driven by several factors, including fewer women having children and an aging population. Fertility rates have been declining for decades, a trend that worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many couples cite financial hardship, housing costs, and work-life balance as reasons for delaying or deciding against starting families.
“The cost of raising children is often seen as prohibitive,” said Kendra Holten, a mother and writer who advocates for simpler, budget-friendly approaches to parenting. “Young people feel pressured to meet unrealistic standards—big homes, expensive child care, and lavish lifestyles. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Prioritizing family over material wealth can help more parents feel capable of growing their families.”
The Child Tax Credit: A Proven Solution
The Child Tax Credit has already demonstrated its power to lift families out of poverty. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a temporary expansion of the credit cut child poverty in half. However, when the expansion expired in 2022, 3.2 million children fell back below the poverty line.
Hawley’s plan builds on this success by offering families the option to receive their credits in monthly installments rather than as a lump sum during tax season. This change would provide ongoing financial relief, helping parents manage day-to-day expenses like groceries, rent, and child care.
While Democrats have historically led efforts to expand the Child Tax Credit, Hawley’s proposal marks a significant step for Republicans in addressing family financial security. By focusing on working-class families, Hawley aims to appeal to the voters who helped reshape the political landscape in 2016 and 2024.
With Republicans holding narrow majorities in Congress, the proposal could face resistance from budget hawks concerned about its $2-$3 trillion price tag. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will need to navigate the party’s priorities carefully. Still, with a second reconciliation package on the horizon for 2025, the proposal could become a key part of broader tax negotiations.
At its core, Hawley’s push for a higher Child Tax Credit is about ensuring that the American dream remains accessible to families of all income levels. It acknowledges the growing pressures families face and seeks to remove financial barriers that discourage people from having children.
As America grapples with declining birth rates, economic uncertainty, and shifting demographics, policymakers must decide: Will they invest in families and future generations, or allow financial hardships to dictate the country’s trajectory?
For families struggling to make ends meet, a $5,000 Child Tax Credit could be life-changing—not just for their children, but for the nation as a whole.
NP Editor: While we are generally reluctant to support welfare and subsidies, this is one that we do. Children are the very meaning of life. Without them, America will be overrun and relegated to history’s dustbin.
